![]() These results imply that vigorous competitive pressure in both product and labor markets is important for creating the incentives for firms to continuously innovate, create and grow, and that government policy should encourage such competition. Our model suggests that this factor-lack of competitive pressure-accounts for about two-thirds of the Rust Belt’s decline in employment share. Eventually the region’s manufacturers began to innovate, resulting in a stabilization of employment share at a significantly lower level. But theory suggests, and data support, that the Rust Belt’s decline started in the 1950s when the region’s dominant industries faced virtually no product or labor competition and therefore had little incentive to innovate or become more productive.Īs foreign imports increased and manufacturing shifted to the American South, the Rust Belt’s share of manufacturing jobs and total jobs declined dramatically. The decline of the heavy manufacturing industry in the American “Rust Belt” is often thought to have begun in the late 1970s, when the United States suffered a significant recession. The views expressed here are those of the authors, not necessarily those of others in the Federal Reserve System. The papers are an occasional series for a general audience. ![]() All three state polls had a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of 3 percentage points.Economic Policy Papers are based on policy-oriented research produced by Minneapolis Fed staff and consultants. It included 1,370 likely voters in Michigan, 1,467 in Pennsylvania, and 1,200 in Ohio. 17 in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and from Oct. The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English from Oct. It’s going to be America first again,” he said.Ĭlinton has offered a more tempered approach, saying she would seek to re-evaluate NAFTA if elected and that there were problems with some aspects of the TPP. “The jobs theft will end … the day I start the presidency. Last week while campaigning, he called outsourcing “the greatest job theft in the history of the world”. companies to move their production overseas. Trump argues that the deal, which must be ratified by Congress, would motivate more U.S. He also opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would open markets in East Asia. Trump has called the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico one of the worst deals ever struck and blames it for manufacturing jobs being moved to Mexico. ![]() ![]() In Pennsylvania, long a steel and heavy manufacturing center, 45 percent favored Clinton on trade, compared with 38 percent for Trump, according to the polling, conducted in mid-October. In Ohio, known for its aerospace, steel and rubber industries, 45 percent said Clinton would be better on trade, compared with 38 percent for Trump. In the automaking state of Michigan, which has voted reliably for Democratic candidates in recent presidential elections but which Trump has fought hard to win, some 40 percent of likely voters believed Clinton would be better equipped to address trade, compared with 36 percent for Trump. “Trump has made a strong effort to portray Clinton as favorable to trade policies that he has labeled ‘a disaster’ for the United States,” said Thomas Nelson, a political science professor at Ohio State University. The results underscore the uphill battle the New York businessman faces on Election Day, when he needs to sweep a broad array of battleground states to win the White House. 8 election that form the bulk of a region dubbed the Rust Belt for its swaths of shuttered factories - favor Trump’s Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, on the issue of trade, according to the polling, with some respondents citing how international trade can bring down prices. Voters in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania - three competitive states in the Nov. Hillary Clinton visits a campaign field office in North Las Vegas, Nevada. ![]()
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